In a presentation to the Fed’s retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Eric Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, argued that investors have become better at forecasting because officials have ramped up efforts to convey their intentions. Federal Open Market Committee “announcements themselves are rarely a surprise, while significant changes in monetary policy are frequently communicated to the markets beforehand via speeches,” he wrote in a March working paper with Vishuddhi Jayawickrema of the Sri Lankan central bank. It should be compulsory reading at the BOJ [Bank of Japan].

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