David Neumark, a researcher at the University of California, Irvine, said the employment effects of a sharp increase in the federal minimum wage would be felt most acutely in places with an abundance of low-skill and low-wage workers, the very places low unemployment policies are meant to help. “In very low-wage states,” he said, “aggressive increases to a high minimum wage could be enough to work at cross-purposes with fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

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