The Green Revolution is Not Always Bloodless: Agricultural Modernization and Rural Conflict in Brazil
What are the sources of rural unrest? Conventional wisdom suggests that when wage
and
employment shocks occur, workers have greater incentives to engage in contentious
mobilization.
Examining the case of Brazil, we show that adoption of new agricultural technology
that substitutes
for labor and reduces employment - specifically, mechanical tractors - contributes
to rural conflict.
Using counts of tractors as well as a measure of terrain ruggedness as an instrument
for
mechanization, we estimate the effects of agricultural mechanization on rural land
invasions at the
municipal level. We find that the numbers of tractors is robustly, positively correlated
with conflict.
We also confirm that mechanization's impact is distinct from the effects of other
factors associated
with rural unrest such as rainfall, landholding inequality, or nearby land reforms.
Findings shed light
on unanticipated political consequences of the Green Revolution and illuminate a mechanism
potentially shaping rural conflict elsewhere.
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