Measuring Corruption: Unmasking Strategic Data Manipulation
Efficient measurement and identification of corruption are important for combatting
it. The researchers develop new tests that uncover the strategic nature of intent
to defraud with data manipulation, and then apply these methods to a World Bank project
in Africa. Digit analysis exploits the fact that humanly produced data follow different
patterns than naturally occurring data. Ensminger’s tests are based on Benford’s Law
of natural digit distributions, and include new statistical techniques to accommodate
smaller sample sizes, capture deviations based upon their monetary profitability,
and expose efforts to subvert detection. A forensic audit of the same project by the
World Bank provides external validity. (JEL Codes: D73, O22, H83, C49)
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